Chugging Along At the beginning of this year, many economists forecast a significant recession to materialize by now. Instead, the economy has continued to grow despite the strong headwind from much higher interest rates. With inflation waning and continued broad-based momentum in the economy, it is possible that the Federal Reserve may be on its way to successfully engineering the [...]
Yield Curve Confusion A strong economy combined with the impact from a shortage of workers, continued supply chain issues, Covid lockdowns in China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have together generated the highest levels of inflation in decades. In response, the Federal Reserve has begun to hike ultra-low interest rates and halt its aggressive bond purchases that were required [...]
The Long View Third quarter economic activity was underwhelming. Earlier this year, investors looked forward to a robust reopening of the economy generated by a vaccine-led victory over the pandemic. While new Covid cases have recently fallen, the Delta variant was a clear headwind to third quarter activity along with supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Reviving the economy has [...]
Uncharted Waters In the United States and around the world, Covid-19 has threatened the health of people and economies. Medical facilities have been overrun by sudden waves of patients, deaths have occurred in large numbers, entire populations have been under stay-at-home orders, economies have ground to a halt and stock market volatility has risen to extreme levels. Peoples' lives and [...]
