About Holger Berndt

Holger is a long-time resident of San Francisco and has many years of experience formulating investment strategies, researching securities and managing equity and fixed income portfolios for high-net-worth individuals and institutions and also managed a successful hedge fund. He has overseen investments and advised clients through multiple economic and market cycles over three different decades. Holger has a B.S. in Finance from the University of Connecticut and has held the Chartered Financial analyst designation since 1995. He is a member of the CFA Society of San Francisco and the CFA Institute.

Economic Perspectives December 2019

"Whenever You Find Yourself on the Side of the Majority, it is Time to Pause and Reflect." In our last letter we noted that the length of our current economic expansion had moved into record territory, and it continues. However, now that we are 125 months into the longest expansion going back to 1854, investors are working hard to convince [...]

Economic Perspectives September 2019

“It’s Déjà Vu All Over Again” That famous quote attributed to baseball legend Yogi Berra could just as easily apply to the stock market today. In fact, it strikes us that many of Mr. Berra's "Yogi-isms" apply to today's stock market, but we digress... Fear of a recession at the end of 2018 caused the Federal Reserve to announce early [...]

Economic Perspectives June 2019

Economic Strength with a Dose of Uncertainty During the first four months of 2019, the S&P 500 advanced almost 18% as stocks quickly snapped back from the dive they took in the final quarter of last year.  A shift in policy by the Federal Reserve, in which they no longer anticipate additional interest rate increases this year, ignited the V-shaped [...]

Economic Perspectives April 2019

Fear Recedes as Quickly as it Arrived During the first quarter of 2019, the S&P 500 advanced 13% as stocks quickly snapped back from the dive they took in the final quarter of last year. A shift in policy by the Federal Reserve, in which they no longer anticipate additional interest rate increases this year, ignited the V-shaped recovery for [...]

Economic Perspectives March 2019

Volatility Returns with a Vengeance Financial markets tested investor resolve as volatility began surging in the final quarter of 2018. Nearly steady gains through the first three quarters of the year produced a 9% rise for the S&P 500. Then volatility returned with a vengeance, driving the market down 14% in the final quarter and resulting in a 6% loss [...]

Economic Perspectives October 2018

Seeing the Forest through the Trees The most challenging aspect of being a good investor is removing emotion from the decision-making process, and recent “breaking headlines” have thoroughly tested that resolve.  The old adage about a bull market climbing a wall of worry has rarely been truer than it is currently.  The S&P 500 is up 9.0% year to date [...]